BE CAREFUL, REPUBLICANS
“Don’t let Obama play the Iran card in order to start a war in order to get elected--be careful Republicans!”
That was Donald Trump on Twitter, Oct. 22, 2012, two weeks before an election. Fourteen years later, two weeks after his aides said the next round of bombs could wait until after you vote, the White House asked the Pentagon for Iran strike options it could use before you vote.
BE CAREFUL, REPUBLICANS. He warned you about this guy.
The prophet of 2012
Trump did not say it once. He said it on a loop, and Snopes keeps the receipts:
- Nov. 29, 2011: “In order to get elected, @BarackObama will start a war with Iran.”
- Aug. 16, 2012: “I always said @BarackObama will attack Iran, in some form, prior to the election.”
- Oct. 9, 2012: “Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin – watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate.”
He said it on camera too. In a 2011 video blog, per CNN’s KFile, he told viewers the only way Obama figured he would get reelected, “as sure as you’re sitting there,” was “to start a war with Iran.” Watch it: CNN video, Trump in 2011.
Obama never did it. He won anyway. The prediction was wrong about Obama. It may turn out to be a very good description of its author.
President Barack Obama, Dec. 6, 2012. Trump spent two years predicting he would bomb Iran to win reelection. He did not. Credit: Official White House Photo by Pete Souza, public domain.
The October surprise, now with a Pentagon order
Here is where the war stands. It is in its eighth month. Six American service members died in its deadliest attack on U.S. troops, at the Port of Shuaiba, per CBS News. The U.S. has not struck Iran in several weeks, and The Atlantic calls it an unpopular war that is dragging Republican candidates down nationwide.
On Wednesday, The Atlantic reported that the White House has asked the Pentagon for strike options against Iranian targets that could be used ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. A Republican familiar with the talks explained the appeal: “It would make the president look like he got a win and that gas prices would start going down.” Even the plan’s advocates admit limited strikes would not lower gas prices before Election Day.
Axios reported that the Pentagon had told Central Command several days earlier to finish preparing to resume major combat operations, with no date set and no final decision from Trump. NBC News confirmed the team has discussed launching strikes before the midterms. One Israeli official told Axios the odds of it happening before the election are “not high.”
Then came the denial, and then the denial of the denial. On Thursday, Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd,” per AP. On Friday, asked why any strike was tied to the midterms instead of happening now, he told reporters, “We may. We will see,” per Anadolu Agency. On Saturday, after a missile hit Riyadh’s main airport, he said the U.S. “may” join Saudi strikes on Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen, per TIME.
“Will not” lasted about a day. Then it was “We may.”
Two weeks ago, we covered the other version of this calendar in After the Midterms. The bombs could wait until after you vote. Now they might be on the ballot.
As for the gas prices, Trump told a Nebraska rally on Monday that they are “a small price to pay for keeping the world safe,” then added, “Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego,” per the full transcript at PolitiFact. The White House says he meant U.S. cities would have been threatened if a nuclear Iran had not been stopped. Read it yourself and decide. He took another run at it in San Antonio on Wednesday: NBC News video.
In 2012, a strike before an election was proof of a desperate president. In 2026, it is an option on the table.
Democrats, the Constitution is not a seasonal item
Before anyone on the left gets comfortable, here is your side’s tape.
In 2007, Sen. Joe Biden said that if President Bush took the country to war with Iran without congressional approval, “I will move to impeach him,” per NBC News. “The president has no authority to unilaterally attack Iran,” he said.
In January 2024, President Biden ordered strikes on the Houthis in Yemen without a vote in Congress. Progressive Democrats fumed that it was unconstitutional, and Republicans offered rare praise, per the BBC. Nobody moved to impeach anybody.
Sen. Barack Obama wrote in a 2007 Boston Globe questionnaire that “the President does not have power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation.” In 2011, President Obama kept the Libya air war going past the War Powers Resolution’s 60-day clock without Congress, after overruling top Pentagon and Justice Department lawyers, per The New York Times.
Both parties find Article I the moment the other party’s guy is holding the button.
Wag the dog, jerseys swapped
In December 1998, Bill Clinton bombed Iraq on the eve of his House impeachment debate. Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott said in a statement that he could not support it: “Both the timing and the policy are subject to question.” Rep. Gerald Solomon (R-N.Y.) put it plainer to the BBC: “Never underestimate a desperate president.”
Democrats, meanwhile, attacked Republicans for questioning a president’s motives while American troops were in harm’s way, per The New York Times.
President Bill Clinton’s official portrait, 1993. In 1998, Republicans asked whether his Iraq strikes were timed to his impeachment. Credit: Bob McNeely, The White House, public domain.
Run that tape in 2026 and both parties are wearing the other team’s jersey. The party of “never underestimate a desperate president” has no questions about timing. If Democrats now ask about it, they can thank Trent Lott for the template, and apologize to him while they’re at it.
Both costumes
Congress can settle this any week it wants. It has not. The Senate has voted down Iran war powers resolutions again and again since March; the latest failed 49 to 50 on Sept. 24, per Congress Receipts. Sen. John Fetterman has been the only Democrat voting no, and Sen. Rand Paul has been a Republican yes every time, per The Hill.
If a strike is worth doing, it is worth a vote in Congress before Nov. 3. If it is only worth doing before Nov. 3, it is not worth doing.
Receipts
- The Atlantic, Oct. 7, 2026. The White House asked for Iran strike options usable before the midterms, and the “got a win” quote.
- Axios, Oct. 7, 2026. The Pentagon told Central Command to finish preparing to resume major combat operations; no date and no final decision.
- NBC News, Oct. 7, 2026. New Iran war options, including strikes before the midterms.
- PolitiFact, Oct. 6, 2026. The Nebraska rally transcript and the White House response.
- NBC News video, Oct. 8, 2026. Trump revisits the comment in San Antonio.
- CBS News, Oct. 7, 2026. Iranian attacks on U.S. bases and the deadliest attack on U.S. troops of the war.
- Snopes. Trump’s 2011 to 2013 tweets predicting Obama would attack Iran.
- CNN KFile, Jan. 3, 2020 and CNN video. The tweets and the 2011 video blog.
- NBC News, June 2019. Biden’s 2007 impeachment warning.
- BBC, Jan. 12, 2024. Democrats fume over Biden’s Houthi strikes; Republicans praise them.
- Boston Globe candidate questionnaire, Dec. 2007. Obama on unilateral military action.
- The New York Times, June 17, 2011. Obama overrules top lawyers on Libya and the War Powers Resolution.
- Washington Post, Dec. 16, 1998. Trent Lott’s statement on the Iraq strikes.
- BBC, Dec. 17, 1998. “Never underestimate a desperate president.”
- The New York Times, Dec. 18, 1998. Republicans question Clinton’s motives; Democrats push back.
- Congress Receipts and The Hill. The Senate’s Iran war powers votes, and who broke ranks.
- AP, Oct. 8, 2026. Trump’s Truth Social pledge not to attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms.
- Anadolu Agency, Oct. 10, 2026. Asked Friday about a pre-midterm strike, Trump: “We may. We will see.”
- TIME, Oct. 10, 2026. Trump says the U.S. “may” join Saudi strikes on the Houthis after the Riyadh airport attacks.
- Hypocrisy Democracy, After the Midterms. Our Sept. 26 piece on the bombing calendar.
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Originally published on Substack.