ANYWHERE BUT CALIFORNIA
Quick question for you. What do you call a governor who wants to tax the ultra-rich everywhere except the state he governs? A 2028 frontrunner.
The tax on the ballot
California voters are already holding ballots with Proposition 40 on them. It is a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of Californians worth more than about $1.1 billion, with a smaller tax for those between $1 billion and $1.1 billion, applying to anyone who lived in the state on Jan. 1, 2026, per NBC News. Ninety percent of the money goes to health care, mainly Medi-Cal, with the rest split between education and food assistance.
The official fiscal estimate in the state voter guide projects a temporary revenue increase of “tens of billions of dollars” spread over several years, and a possible ongoing loss of less than $1 billion a year in income tax if billionaires leave. The measure’s backers are Sen. Bernie Sanders and SEIU United Healthcare Workers West. The California Democratic Party endorsed it, per CalMatters. AFP counts roughly 200 billionaires who would pay.
The no vote at the top
Gov. Gavin Newsom says he will vote no, per AFP. On Oct. 9 he went further and endorsed Proposition 42, a measure funded and placed on the ballot by Google co-founder Sergey Brin. Prop. 42 would cancel the billionaire tax and ban any new taxes on personal property, which shuts the door on future wealth taxes too, per CalMatters. Democratic nominee for governor Xavier Becerra also opposes Prop. 40, per NBC.
Here’s the twist. This summer, CalMatters reports, Newsom proposed a national tax on the wealthy: a minimum tax rate on anyone worth more than $100 million, undoing the 2017 corporate tax cuts, bigger inheritance taxes and closing the borrow-against-your-stock loophole.
ANYWHERE BUT CALIFORNIA: tax the rich in a Congress he doesn’t control, protect them in the state he does.
Newsom and Brin attended each other’s weddings, CalMatters notes, though Brin has never donated to him. Rep. Ro Khanna, another possible 2028 contender, put it bluntly at a rally for the tax: “You can’t be anti-Trump and then do the bidding of Trump donors.” Newsom’s side says the issue is protecting retirement savings; his statement said Californians “deserve to have their retirement and life savings protected from new state taxes.” The billionaire tax already exempts many kinds of retirement accounts, CalMatters notes.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2025. He says he will vote no on Prop. 40 and has endorsed Prop. 42, which would cancel it and bar new taxes on personal property. Credit: Office of the Governor of California, public domain via Wikimedia Commons.
The money against
Opponents, including Brin, have put up more than $205 million to defeat Prop. 40, per AFP, and “No” ads run wall to wall on California TV. Two Brin-backed measures, Props. 41 and 42, would each nullify it if they get more votes. In September, the Public Policy Institute of California found 52% of likely voters for Prop. 40, but 51% for Prop. 41 and 54% for Prop. 42. The NBC/Telemundo poll had Prop. 40 at 48% yes, 38% no, 14% undecided.
It isn’t only billionaires saying no. The official no argument lists the California Teachers Association, the California Medical Association and California Professional Firefighters. United Domestic Workers, a union of 250,000 home and child care providers, is urging a no vote, per AFP.
The California State Capitol dome in Sacramento. Props. 40, 41 and 42 conflict; if more than one passes, the one with the most yes votes controls. Credit: Radomianin, public domain via Wikimedia Commons.
The blue costume: tax the rich, terms and conditions apply
For years the Democratic message has been simple: billionaires don’t pay their share. Sanders said it again in Los Angeles: they “paid a lower effective tax rate than a plumber or a nurse.” Then a union put an actual billionaire tax on an actual ballot, and the party’s governor, its nominee for governor and many unions and Democratic groups lined up against it, per NBC.
There are real arguments against a one-time, retroactive asset tax. The official fiscal estimate flags a possible income tax loss if the rich move away. But if the honest position is “not this way, not in my state,” then say so, instead of campaigning on a national wealth tax that needs a Congress you don’t run. We flagged Newsom fighting this tax back in The pause button has a donor. The populist costume has been on the rack for a while.
The red costume: populists for billionaires
Republicans get to enjoy Democrats fighting each other. They don’t get to pretend they are bystanders. The yes campaign’s case starts with federal Medicaid cuts in Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” per NBC; supporters say the money would plug that hole, and the official yes argument claims the cuts eliminated coverage for over a million Californians. Most Republicans oppose Prop. 40, CalMatters reports, standing on the same side as a $205 million billionaire ad wall. CalMatters also notes Brin has turned rightward and has been courting Trump’s favor.
A party that sells itself as the working man’s revolt against elites is defending the richest 200 people in the state. And a party that calls every Democratic tax “socialism” took a 9.9% stake in Intel, which we covered in Will the REAL Socialists Please Stand Up? To see who funds California’s own delegation, check the California Money Map at hypocrisydemocracy.net.
Google co-founder Sergey Brin, shown at TED in 2010. Brin funded and placed Prop. 42 on the ballot to defeat the billionaire tax. Credit: Steve Jurvetson, CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
Both costumes
Here’s the adult version.
Democrats wrote the slogan and flinched at the ballot. Newsom wants a wealth tax wherever he isn’t accountable for it. Republicans passed the federal Medicaid cuts that supporters say opened the health care hole, and now stand with the billionaires against filling it. And the billionaires, as usual, spent nine figures on the fight.
Own the boring standard: if you say billionaires should pay more, name the tax you’d vote for in your own state. If you say they’ll leave, name what you’d cut from Medi-Cal instead.
Ask your reps one question: is “tax the rich” a policy, or just a line that only works three time zones away?
Receipts
- California Secretary of State, Official Voter Guide: Proposition 40. Summary; fiscal estimate; supporters and opponents; yes and no arguments; ballot dates.
- CalMatters (Jeanne Kuang), Oct. 9, 2026, updated Oct. 13. Newsom endorses Prop. 42; Brin funding; national wealth tax proposal; Khanna quote; party endorsement; weddings; SEIU response.
- AFP via Yahoo News, Oct. 15, 2026. About 200 billionaires; opponents’ $205 million; Newsom will vote no; United Domestic Workers; Sanders quote.
- NBC News, Sept. 2026. 48-38-14 poll; $1.1 billion threshold; Jan. 1, 2026 residency; 90% health care; Becerra opposes; Medicaid cuts context.
- Public Policy Institute of California, Sept. 15, 2026. 52% Prop. 40; 51% Prop. 41; 54% Prop. 42.
- Earlier Hypocrisy Democracy: The pause button has a donor; Will the REAL Socialists Please Stand Up?. Reader tool: California Money Map.
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Originally published on Substack.
