LOWER THAN BIDEN
Quick question for you. If gas is “lower than Biden,” why does the receipt at the pump feel like a midterm attack ad?
The line in Youngstown
At a Youngstown, Ohio rally on Monday, Oct. 12, Donald Trump told supporters to remember something, per CNN’s Daniel Dale:
“Remember, your prices, your gas prices, are lower than when Biden was president.”
He has repeated versions of that claim for weeks (Ohio TV Oct. 3; Texas Oct. 1; White House Sept. 30), often paired with Iran boasts Dale sets aside. The gas claim is the midterm weather system.
LOWER THAN BIDEN: a rosy comparison that survives only if you throw away most of the calendar.
President Donald Trump's official 2025 portrait. At a Youngstown rally Oct. 12 he claimed gas prices are lower than under Biden. Credit: Daniel Torok, The White House, public domain via Wikimedia Commons..
The AAA math Dale actually ran
Dale’s Oct. 13 fact check, using AAA national averages:
- Monday national average: about $4.36/gallon; Tuesday about $4.34.
- The national average was higher than Monday’s level on only 76 of Biden’s 1,460 full days as president , meaning prices were lower on about 95% of Biden days than on Monday.
- Inauguration day, Jan. 20, 2025: about $3.12. Monday and Tuesday were about 39% higher than that.
- Biden peak: about $5.02 on June 14, 2022 (the spike after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine). Last time under Biden the national average exceeded even Tuesday’s level: July 25, 2022, almost exactly two-and-a-half years before Trump returned.
- Ohio: state average lower during about 90% of Biden’s term than Monday (~$3.87) or Tuesday (~$3.85); those figures about 25% / 24% above Ohio inauguration ~$3.10; last Ohio exceed of Tuesday level under Biden: Nov. 8, 2022.
Trump could have accurately said Biden’s peak was higher than this week’s averages. He chose the slogan that fails on ~95% of Biden days.
A U.S. gas pump (Indiana, 2005). AAA national averages this week sat near $4.34 to $4.36, about 39% above Trump's Jan. 20, 2025 inauguration level, per CNN/Dale. Credit: Derek Jensen (Tysto), public domain via Wikimedia Commons.
“Other prices have all come down.” They haven’t
In the same Youngstown speech, Trump reprised the line that, aside from oil and gas, “your other prices have all come down” since Biden. Dale calls that a lie: average consumer prices were up a seasonally adjusted 4.8% between January 2025 and August 2026 (latest CPI available in the piece). Categories up included food (+4.4%), shelter (+5%), medical care services (+5.3%), apparel (+4.6%). September CPI was due Wednesday morning after Dale published.
The red costume: midterm pump fiction
Campaigns always sand the edges off inflation. Claiming national gas is “lower than Biden” when AAA puts you above ~95% of Biden days is not sanding. It’s a rewrite.
Energy politics is midterm weather. We tracked the diesel/sanctions lane separately in Don’t Hit Diesel, BREAKING NEWS: SANCTIONS BY THE TON, and REVERSE COURSE. Those are related context, not tonight’s main story. Tonight is the pump slogan vs the spreadsheet.
If your closing argument needs the voter to forget inauguration $3.12, it isn’t an argument. It’s a hope.
The blue costume: selective memory of 2022
Democrats hammering pocketbook pain and corruption-as-affordability (see the Guilfoyle accountability line and Politico’s corruption-messaging package) are not wrong that $4.34 hurts. They are wrong if they pretend the 2022 spike never had a war attached, or that every price chart starts the day Trump took the oath.
Dale notes Biden could point to a foreign war he opposed as a driver of that peak, while Trump’s later peak tied to a war he chose. That’s contested foreign-policy framing, not a free pass to erase 76 expensive Biden days or to ignore that most Biden days were cheaper than this week. Both sides shop the calendar.
For readers who want the money trail and the map without a cable chyron, hypocrisydemocracy.net’s Follow the Money / Money Map is built for that: electoral and donor geography as tools, not a rebuild of the site.
President Joe Biden's official 2021 portrait. Dale notes Biden's peak (~$5.02, June 14, 2022) came after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine; most Biden days were still cheaper than this week's AAA averages. Credit: Adam Schultz, The White House, public domain via Wikimedia Commons.
Both costumes
Here’s the adult version.
Trump sold Youngstown a lower-than-Biden fairy tale the AAA calendar rejects. Democrats selling cost-of-living outrage will soft-pedal 2022’s invasion spike when it cleans their chart. Voters can hold both thoughts: $4.34 is higher than inauguration, and $5.02 in 2022 was a real spike with a real war.
Own the boring standard: compare the same AAA series, same CPI, no jersey filter, and stop treating the pump as a campaign prop.
Ask your candidates one question before Nov. 3: will they cite the full price path, or only the days that flatter the speech?
Receipts
- CNN Politics, Daniel Dale fact check, Oct. 13, 2026. Youngstown quote; AAA Mon ~$4.36 / Tue ~$4.34; 76 of 1,460 Biden days higher (~95% cheaper); inauguration ~$3.12; ~39% higher now; Biden peak ~$5.02 June 14, 2022; last exceed Tuesday level July 25, 2022; Ohio ~$3.87/$3.85 vs ~90% of Biden days; CPI +4.8% Jan 2025 to Aug 2026 with food/shelter/medical/apparel; prior June spin at ~$4.16; Matt Stiles contribution noted.
- Related Hypocrisy Democracy (context only, not main story): Don’t Hit Diesel; BREAKING NEWS: SANCTIONS BY THE TON; REVERSE COURSE.
- Reader tools: Follow the Money / Money Map on hypocrisydemocracy.net.
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Originally published on Substack.
